19/06/2023 Economy & Markets 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay Despite many similarities between the inflationary period in the 1970s and in the 2020s, the two scenarios are not identical.
20/02/2023 Geopolitics A year of war in Ukraine: accelerating the energy transition... The war in Ukraine has had a marked impact on the global economy, redrawing national and international priorities. Investors need agility to cope with...
10/02/2023 Economy & Markets Italy: where prudence meets potential As the largest beneficiary of the Next Generation EU post-pandemic reconstruction plan, Italy has a unique opportunity to modernise its economy through...
26/01/2023 Economy & Markets Bonds are back: credit markets in focus during 2023 Understanding the outlook for credit markets in 2023
26/08/2022 Economy & Markets Only a new policy regime can stop rampant inflation, but don... The only way to tackle the new inflationary regime is a credible and abrupt change in the approach to policy: but this seems unlikely to happen.
9/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capit... Understanding how the misallocation of capital in the last macro-financial regime laid the foundations for the prospect of stagflation today.
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/06/2022 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #18 - The power of narratives for invest... Our analysis suggests that narratives complement traditional macro variables when it comes to explaining financial market behaviour.
6/04/2022 Geopolitics Shifts & Narratives #16 - Investing in a fragmented world In this piece we address the impact of de-globalization on investors, and in particular the road back to the benefits of international diversification.
2/03/2022 Geopolitics Shifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further st... Understanding the long-term implications of the Russian-Ukraine conflict in the regime shift in course.
18/01/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #13 - Money and psychology of inflation:... Understanding the linkage between money velocity, psychology of inflation in the regime shift, and consequence for investors.
1/10/2021 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #9 - Adapting equity portfolios to a re... The return of inflation is clearly one of the top themes of 2021 and the post-pandemic economic revival.
16/09/2021 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #8 - Post-summer check-up on the regime ... Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio returned around 19% on a one-year...
26/04/2021 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #2 - Inflation: something deep awakens One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, we wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint....
9/04/2021 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #1 - Do not give up on fundamental valua... Today, most investors are at a loss regarding what to think of the notion of value and valuations and, even most importantly, how to use it in portfolio...