Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors.

Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, and positive on the industrial sector.

As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear (risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies reopening). 

As you construct and monitor client portfolios, we hope you find our Blue Paper informative, insightful and rather complementary to your ongoing due diligence and asset allocation endeavors – both for the balance of 2020 and in the long-run. Recognizing the presence of potential constraints you might encounter through the lens of existing investment guidelines, the composition of your benchmarks, regional exposures, or investment styles, we believe the findings of our research suggest the consideration of US equities for inclusion in either regionally or globally-focused portfolios, to help raise the odds of longer-term risk-adjusted outperformance in client portfolios. The latter is informed by our analysis and what we deem secular—rather than merely cyclical— tailwinds for US equity markets.

The global outbreak of Covid-19 has brought the world and its economy to a standstill, highlighting the importance of sustainable and resilient infrastructure (healthcare, water, power, telecommunications). Countries with fragile infrastructure have less capacity to handle crises, so they will need to increase their infrastructure investments. This is especially crucial in the context of health security and rapid urbanisation.

The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history to mobile a comprehensive package of €1 824 bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument –is a significant achievement and a net positive in the short term for EU assets.

Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape.

US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.