This edition of the GIV elaborates on our macro convictions around inflation, the war in the middle-east and our asset allocation views.

Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditiona lon preceding context.

Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time series models because ofits time-varying granularity.

Momentum trading strategies exploitre turn persistence, but conventional past-year cumulative-return measures generate a noisy signal that attenuates...

The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy.

The major DM central banks – Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ - have left rates unchanged, in line with our expectations.

Financial markets respond not only to quantitative fundamentals but also to narratives that shape investor perceptions of risk, particularly during periods...

Across private assets, selectivity is becoming key. Discover the major themes shaping private equity, private debt, real estate and infrastructure.

The crisis will likely accelerate Europe’s shift to strategic autonomy and greener energy to reduce geopolitical risk.

This paper investigates the demand for precautionary liquidity versus commitment contracts among participants in retirement saving programs.

Asia's ESG reforms, transition finance and tailored frameworks are mobilizing capital for sustainable growth.

What the Iran conflict means for oil, inflation, and global markets: from macro risks to investment implications.

This March special edition examines the Iran conflict's fallout - oil shock scenarios, macro and regional risks, and practical cross-asset investment...

Replay - After recent Middle East events, outlooks point to controlled disorder: wide return dispersion, unstable correlations. Diversify across sectors/regions...

The Iran crisis pushed oil and gas prices higher, raising concerns about higher inflation and weaker growth—especially in regions that rely on energy...