30/09/2022 Geopolitics Upheaval in the global FX regime The energy and inflation crises have uncovered cracks in the long-standing global foreign exchange regime. A new approach to currency management is required...
30/09/2022 Fixed Income & FX Global foreign exchange regime faces winds of change Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed countries like Japan and Britain. Countries will have to intervene to fix misalignments in currency...
31/08/2022 Economy & Markets How to overhaul Europe’s outdated budget rules Europe's fiscal rules are too simplistic and have lost credibility. They need to be revamped to reflect new country and economic conditions.
26/08/2022 Economy & Markets Only a new policy regime can stop rampant inflation, but don... The only way to tackle the new inflationary regime is a credible and abrupt change in the approach to policy: but this seems unlikely to happen.
16/08/2022 Economy & Markets Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast Central banks will be aggressive in the short term as they try to re-establish credibility, with the European Central Bank a case in point.
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor vie... In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between...
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards new fiscal rules in Europe After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central...
20/07/2022 Retirement Pension Funds Letter 15 - Stage 2022: Cycling on As holidaymakers resume their familiar summer breaks and crowds return to the Champs-Elysées to cheer on the final stage of the 2022 Tour de France, elsewhere...
1/07/2022 Global Outlook H2 2022 Investment Outlook - Life above zero: investors’ jou... The H2 economic outlook will feature divergences in growth, inflation and policy mix across regions. Stagflation risk will be a common feature across...
9/06/2022 Economy & Markets The embarrassing legacy of financial capitalism: implication... Understanding how the legacies of the 'old economy' paved the way for a new macro-financial regime today, and implications for investors.
9/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capit... Understanding how the misallocation of capital in the last macro-financial regime laid the foundations for the prospect of stagflation today.
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets The myth of the fiscal free lunch: beware of the trap. An in... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/06/2022 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #18 - The power of narratives for invest... Our analysis suggests that narratives complement traditional macro variables when it comes to explaining financial market behaviour.
