We have reviewed the content and probabilities of our scenarios. First of all, we have included in our central scenario some of the risks that are materialising...

The partial shutoff of gas deliveries is already affecting European growth momentum. Discover what could be the economic impact of a total cutoff and...

Italian government crisis, likely outcome: snap elections the most likely outcome. Prime Minister Draghi would remain at the helm of a caretaker government,...

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.

We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are...

We are entering a tough phase of the regime shift, as the risks over economic growth add to the already hot inflationary backdrop. This means that stagflation...

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.

We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving...

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.

We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month.

The presentation provides insights into how the current war/energy crisis is exacerbating the already high inflation. The material also details what strategies...

We expect QE to end in Q3, as announced, followed by rate normalisation, which is likely to lift rates out of negative territory over the next few months,...

United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms...

We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.