We have reviewed the content and probabilities of our scenarios. First of all, we have included in our central scenario some of the risks that are materialising (e.g. stagflation in Europe) and that were previously included in our downside scenario. Against this backdrop, the probability of this scenario increases (from 60 to 70%). The downside scenario is also becoming much darker (global recession /debt crisis). And it is now counterbalanced by a new upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices.