31/08/2022 Economy & Markets How to overhaul Europe’s outdated budget rules Europe's fiscal rules are too simplistic and have lost credibility. They need to be revamped to reflect new country and economic conditions.
26/08/2022 Economy & Markets Only a new policy regime can stop rampant inflation, but don... The only way to tackle the new inflationary regime is a credible and abrupt change in the approach to policy: but this seems unlikely to happen.
16/08/2022 Economy & Markets Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast Central banks will be aggressive in the short term as they try to re-establish credibility, with the European Central Bank a case in point.
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor vie... In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between...
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards new fiscal rules in Europe After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central...
9/06/2022 Economy & Markets The embarrassing legacy of financial capitalism: implication... Understanding how the legacies of the 'old economy' paved the way for a new macro-financial regime today, and implications for investors.
9/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capit... Understanding how the misallocation of capital in the last macro-financial regime laid the foundations for the prospect of stagflation today.
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets The myth of the fiscal free lunch: beware of the trap. An in... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
27/04/2022 Economy & Markets Adding to the debate: “Is the Fed behind the curve"? Interpretation on the view that the Fed is "behind the curve" from Fed official and investment implications associated with the statement.
21/04/2022 Economy & Markets The energy crisis heightens inflation fears - Strategies to ... The presentation provides insights into how the current war/energy crisis is exacerbating the already high inflation. The material also details what strategies...
20/04/2022 Economy & Markets The inflation psychology is kicking in Understanding the dynamics of inflation and how the psychology of inflation can make it more permanent than expected
5/04/2022 Economy & Markets Market Scenarios and Risks - April 2022 We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. The war in Ukraine could evolve in...
5/04/2022 Economy & Markets Macroeconomic Picture - April 2022 United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms...
9/02/2022 Economy & Markets Inflation is starting to burn - Strategies to protect portfo... Understanding our key convictions and portfolio implications on inflation trends ahead