The H2 economic outlook will feature divergences in growth, inflation and policy mix across regions. Stagflation risk will be a common feature across...

Understanding how the misallocation of capital in the last macro-financial regime laid the foundations for the prospect of stagflation today.

Our analysis suggests that narratives complement traditional macro variables when it comes to explaining financial market behaviour.

The presentation provides insights into how the current war/energy crisis is exacerbating the already high inflation. The material also details what strategies...

We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. The war in Ukraine could evolve in...

United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms...

The world is preparing to face its greatest ever challenges: the energy transition to fight the inexorable climate crisis and the development of an inclusive...

We are already reaching the peak of economic acceleration. What matters going forward is what will be left of this bounce in growth and inflation.

As the global economy emerges from its worst slump since the 1930s, we envisage plenty of inflation fertilisers at stake, especially in the United States....

The Covid-19 crisis is exceptional in many ways. It is the most serious health crisis since the Spanish flu a century ago. This crisis resulted in an...

Medium to long-term scenarios and return forecasts

The Covid-19 pandemic drove an unprecedented collapse in economic activity in H1, which was followed by a desynchronized rebound.

The Covid-19 crisis drove the global economy into an unprecedented deep freeze in the first half of 2020.

The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions...

After enjoying stellar performance this year, moving into 2020, investors will increasingly ask whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade...