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Weekly Market Directions

ECB to stay on hold in early 2026

For now, the ECB is in a 'good place', with services inflation remaining high and activity data improving more than expected.

Line chart 'Eurozone CPI back to target' plotting monthly year‑on‑year CPI (%) from Jan 2024 to late 2025. The blue line falls from ~2.9% to a mid‑2024 low near 1.7%, then rises above 2.4% in early 2025 and moves toward the dashed 2% policy target. Source: Amundi/Bloomberg.

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