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12.01.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

United States: the power of Executive Orders

Following the elections in Georgia, the Democrats have a very small majority in Congress. To facilitate governance, the new administration is likely to continue to govern using Executive Orders (EOs). Their use has grown over time, and they have become a full-fledged instrument of governance.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

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01.12.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

Q4 visibility has shrunk as new lockdown put at risk the recovery. EPS rebound should resume in 2021 given the base effect, the ramp-up of stimulus and a potential easing of containment measures alongside the progress made to curb the pandemic.

Debora DELBÓ

Global EM Senior Strategist

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Slider-1280-400

16.11.2020 - Discussion Paper

Europe, US and China tomorrow: Will it be possible to avoid geopolitical and economic traps?

There are many pitfalls looming. Some concern China, the United States and Europe, while others are more targeted, notably on China or on the relationship between China and the United States. Some traps concern geopolitics (the Thucydides trap, the Kindleberger trap, the Herodotus trap, the Tacitus trap, the Chamberlain - Daladier trap and the cold war trap), while others deal with purely economic issues (the middle-income trap, the inflation trap, the stagflation trap and the debt trap).

Philippe ITHURBIDE

Senior Economic Advisor

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04.11.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

HY default cycle and rating changes: how it is “different” this time

Despite a severe macro contraction, policy reaction to the covid-crisis limited most of corporates’ rating migration and HY defaults to low-rated debt. This piece outlines our expectations on both rating and default cycles to come.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Mickael BELLAÏCHE

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13.10.2020 - Insights Paper

Building ESG momentum in US equities

US ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investors are increasingly likely to benefit as the country’s companies close the gap with best-in-class global companies on ESG disclosure and performance. The trend towards ESG in the United States is being driven by asset owners demanding ESG integration into corporate business strategies, investors using it as a source of alpha1, and regulators looking to formalize ESG into its rules and protocols. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that companies with improving ESG momentum have been correlated with positive risk-adjusted returns.

Craig STERLING

Head of Equity Research, US Director of Core Equity, Portfolio Manager

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

You asked, we answer

Our Global Views team attempts to answer some of the questions often asked by our clients.

Didier BOROWSKI, Pierre BLANCHET, Tristan PERRIER

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03.09.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

An earnings season better than expected but the valuation issue has not yet been resolved…

There was a substantial decline in Q2 earnings but they turned out to be better than expected; their decline being ultimately less pronounced than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, whereas the current recession is much more severe. This surprising resilience is due in large part to sector aspects. Financial stocks have generally proved more resilient than during the GFC. Furthermore, the Healthcare and Technology sectors have emerged remarkably unscathed. The other side of the coin is that, without these last two sectors, the decline in earnings would have been much more pronounced. Given the revisions made and the achievements in H1, barring a new general lockdown episode, most of the consensus adjustment seems to be behind us. However, the valuation debate - excessive or not - is still far from being resolved. The duration of the crisis will be the key parameter in responding to this question.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

25.06.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Macroeconomic picture - July 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Macroeconomic picture - June 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

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