Summary
Summer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
OBBBA: a costly and socially regressive fiscal plan
Tariff uncertainty looms ahead of August deadlines
Bonds face a fiscal reality check

Summer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
Global Investment Views
Deal or no deal, prepare for a volatile summer
Global equities reached new record levels in July on expectations of trade deals, easing of US tariff threats and hopes of a short-term boost to US growth from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). This has happened despite US tariffs moving higher (when compared with before Trump came to power), indicating some complacency in risk assets. On the other hand, bond yields in the US, the UK, Europe, and Japan are reflecting concerns over debt sustainability.
