Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July/August 2023

Where will the pieces fall? Takeaways from 2023 AWIF

The 2023 Amundi World Investment Forum (AWIF) focused on the transformative time we are living in and the key consequences for investors. Investors should embrace a dynamic asset allocation (DAA) approach, rethink fixed income and forex investing with a global mindset, pay attention to trends such as Net Zero and the emergence of Asian giants, and be aware of fashionable trends such as AI, while keeping an eye on valuations.

• Macroeconomic focus: UK monetary policy to avert risk of a wage-price spiral
• Emerging markets: Emerging markets central banks ready to start easing
• Macroeconomic snapshot
• Central banks watch: DM-EM CB asynchrony to feature in H2
• Geopolitics: Implications of Wagner insurrection
• Policy: Falling productivity may lead to a poor policy mix
• Scenarios and risks 
• Amundi Institute models: Composite Economic Momentum Index (CEMI)
• Infographic - Markets in charts: Equities & Bonds
• Commodities: Modest upside still likely for oil
• Currencies: JPY: no recession, no party

Receding inflation doesn’t mean the battle is won yet

The optimism on risk assets behaviour partly stems from most of the hiking cycle now being behind us and a better-than-previously-expected economic picture, mainly in the US. Here, we continue to expect a mild recession in 4Q23/1Q24, but we upgraded our 2023 growth forecast to 1.6% on the back of better Q1 growth revisions.

July/August 2023