Summary
Global Investment Views
Looming divergences and the great asset repricing
We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances.
Global Investment Views - May 2022
This Month's Topic
Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation
The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus...
Thematic Global Views
French presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support
The incumbent president’s re-election avoids an unpredictable political phase for France.
French presidential election: Macron’s victory...
Thematic 1
Upward pressures on inflation are the major market driver
We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility.
Upward pressures on inflation are the major...
Thematic 2
Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear
The extended lockdown in Shanghai and other cities have shattered market confidence, sending Chinese equity market down again over the month.
Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock:...
Market Scenarios and Risks
May 2022
We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets.
Market Scenarios and Risks - May 2022
Macroeconomic Picture
May 2022
Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.
Macroeconomic Picture - May 2022
Authors
