Global Investment Views

Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances. 

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Global Investment Views - May 2022

This Month's Topic

Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation

The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.

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Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation

Thematic Global Views

French presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support

The incumbent president’s re-election avoids an unpredictable political phase for France.

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French presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support

Thematic 1

Upward pressures on inflation are the major market driver

We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility.

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Upward pressures on inflation are the major market driver

Thematic 2

Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear

The extended lockdown in Shanghai and other cities have shattered market confidence, sending Chinese equity market down again over the month.

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Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear

Market Scenarios and Risks

May 2022

We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets.

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Market Scenarios and Risks - May 2022

Macroeconomic Picture

May 2022

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.

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Macroeconomic Picture - May 2022

Authors

RC - Author - DEFEND Monica
Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, Member of Amundi’s Executive Committee
RC - Author - Vincent Mortier
Group Chief Investment Officer
Germano Matteo
Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer