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4.05.2022

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2022

Published 

4 May, 2022

> 10 minutes
4.05.2022
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2022
Published 

4 May, 2022

> 10 minutes

Global Investment Views


Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances. 

This Month's Topic


Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation

The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.

Thematic Global Views


French presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support

The incumbent president’s re-election avoids an unpredictable political phase for France.

Thematic 1


Upward pressures on inflation are the major market driver

We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility.

Thematic 2


Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear

The extended lockdown in Shanghai and other cities have shattered market confidence, sending Chinese equity market down again over the month.

Market Scenarios and Risks


May 2022

We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets.

Macroeconomic Picture


May 2022

Macroeconomic Picture by area and Macro and Market forecast.


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