10/10/2023 Economy & Markets Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - October 2023 Inflation has been on a declining path in advanced countries, albeit with some stickiness in services inflation
10/10/2023 Economy & Markets Limited hit from energy price rise on US consumption so far The impact of energy on the US economy has declined over the last three decades, but a series of shocks since the pandemic and a +30% price surge since...
28/07/2023 Economy & Markets Fed moving to a pause with a very data-dependent approach The Talks elaborates on the banking stress in US and the FOMC May meeting.
19/06/2023 Economy & Markets 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay Despite many similarities between the inflationary period in the 1970s and in the 2020s, the two scenarios are not identical.
3/04/2023 Economy & Markets Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US... Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession.
3/04/2023 Economy & Markets Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - April 2023 Core inflation has been persistent across both the United States and the Eurozone, slightly reversing previous indications of a smoother path and a faster...
17/03/2023 Economy & Markets ECB increases rates: the job on inflation is not done yet, b... Understanding the outcome of the latest ECB meeting and its fallout on the euro bond market.
7/02/2023 Economy & Markets Fed continuing to downshift: 31 January-1 February FOMC revi... Review of the February FOMC meeting and its market implications.
3/02/2023 Economy & Markets ECB-inspired rally risks going too far Understanding the outcome of the latest ECB meeting and its fallout on the euro bond market.
19/12/2022 Economy & Markets Hawkish surprise from the ECB Understanding the outcome of the latest ECB meeting and its fallout on the euro bond market.
16/12/2022 Economy & Markets Fed: Staying the course until the job is done Understanding the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and its market implications.
2/12/2022 Economy & Markets Defensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual... The economic backdrop foreseen for the next 12 months suggests that the ongoing correction will continue through the first half of 2023, featuring a profits...
7/11/2022 Economy & Markets For the Fed, the impossible QT The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation.
4/11/2022 Economy & Markets 1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot Understanding the outcome of the November FOMC meeting and its market implications
28/10/2022 Economy & Markets A dovish pivot from the ECB: Euro bonds back in focus The ECB has turned more dovish suggesting a less aggressive rate hike path ahead.