26/08/2022 Economy & Markets Only a new policy regime can stop rampant inflation, but don... The only way to tackle the new inflationary regime is a credible and abrupt change in the approach to policy: but this seems unlikely to happen.
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor vie... In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between...
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards new fiscal rules in Europe After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central...
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/03/2022 Geopolitics Shifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further st... Understanding the long-term implications of the Russian-Ukraine conflict in the regime shift in course.
18/01/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #13 - Money and psychology of inflation:... Understanding the linkage between money velocity, psychology of inflation in the regime shift, and consequence for investors.
16/09/2021 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #8 - Post-summer check-up on the regime ... Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio returned around 19% on a one-year...
9/04/2021 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #1 - Do not give up on fundamental valua... Today, most investors are at a loss regarding what to think of the notion of value and valuations and, even most importantly, how to use it in portfolio...