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15.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Europe at an economic policy crossroads

The new European leadership (at the head of the European Commission and the ECB), combined with historically low real interest rates, provides a unique opportunity to rethink priorities in order to meet the challenges at hand (economic, financial, environmental and security challenges). In economic terms, strengthening Europe and improving its competitiveness means tackling all these challenges simultaneously. At the level of economic policy, the link between monetary and fiscal policy must inevitably be rethought. But that's not enough. The expansionary policy mix must be accompanied by an improvement in the financial architecture. We identify two pillars on which the European authorities shold be able to act significantly in 2020-21: the Capital Market Union and budgetary rules. This is a prerequisite for dealing with the inevitable macrofinancial shocks that the future holds. Against this backdrop, the voices of Christine Lagarde and Ursula von Der Leyen (Presidents of the ECB and the Commission respectively) are eagerly awaited.

Vignette 600x400 Eurozone

Vignette 600x400 Eurozone

14.01.2020 - Expert Talk

December PMIs confirmed the resilience of the Eurozone service sector

Industrial production remained weak in the Eurozone, as newly released data suggested a further contraction in Germany and Italy.

Gregorio VANIN

Macroeconomic Research

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Vignette

10.10.2019 - Thought of the Day

September Eurozone PMIs signal a widening contraction in manufacturing and services

September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors.

Gregorio VANIN

Macroeconomic Research

Valentine AINOUZ 2

Valentine AINOUZ 2

25.07.2019 - Expert Talk

The Fed and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accommodative monetary policy support growth?

The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

Fixed Income - EU

Fixed Income - EU

15.07.2019 - Investment Talks

Revisiting fixed income opportunities after the European institution appointments

The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

Didier BOROWSKI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Grégoire PESQUES

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03.05.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

European equities: what impacts in the event of a tariff war with the United States?

While the threat of a large-scale Sino-US tariff war appears to be receding, the US could now switch its focus to its trade deficits with the European Union.

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

Cross

Cross

02.04.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Eurozone: a mere dip or a sustained slowdown?

After a long series of disappointments in 2018, euro zone economic figures have remained very mixed so far in 2019. However, the situation should improve over the coming quarters, thanks to a combination of robust household income, heavy fiscal support, and global trade that is a little weaker than it has been in recent months.

Tristan PERRIER

Senior Economist

Valentine AINOUZ 2

Valentine AINOUZ 2

02.04.2019 - Expert Talk

The ECB and its watchers : 5 Takeaways

Five takeaways from the ECB watchers conference:

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

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09.05.2018 - Thematic Paper

Cross road: the landscape of the fixed-income market

The global economy enjoyed a strongest upturn in 2017. The upswing was broad and driven by a notable rebound in global trade and an investment recovery in advanced economies. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has allowed central banks to confirm the gradual reduction (at different speeds) in the accommodative stance of monetary policy.

Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI, Silvia DI SILVIO

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