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22.12.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - January 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not going to reverse completely, and the old normal will not return as it used to be.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment

Economic and corporate-profit recoveries continue along a gradual, upward-sloping catch-up process, where growth speed and composition will be key to landing in a “recovery financial regime” towards year’s end. Transition to the new financial regime will continue amid a sequel of relapses in the real economy, where policy boosters will prove critical, moving the needle between base and risk scenario. Over the next three to six months, while keeping the risk budget unchanged, progressively rotate risk from US HY into deep value/cyclical equities. Global IG remains supported by central banks’ purchasing programs and offer palatable yields. Lastly, expansive monetary policies and safe haven nature will support gold.

Monica DEFEND, Lorenzo PORTELLI

20.07.2020 - Podcast

Blue Research - The Day After #10 “Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research : what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis”

Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape. This tenth issue of the series "The Day After", Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research: what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis is written by Monica Defend.

20.05.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Cosimo MARASCIULO, Annalisa USARDI

30.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years

The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.

Annalisa USARDI, Federico CESARINI, Lorenzo PORTELLI

06.02.2020 - Thematic Paper

Asset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points

The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.

Pascal BLANQUE, Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO

05.02.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Investment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed

While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle. Exceptional features of this cycle are lower growth due to trade war escalation, unprecedented low interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy and a fairly resilient labour market due to the strong domestic sector resilience. Notwithstanding these specificities, the 2020 is still compatible with a late cycle phase; but the most likely scenario for the end of 2021 is the transition into a correction phase

Annalisa USARDI, Lorenzo PORTELLI

05.02.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Top Risk Map - February 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

15.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Europe at an economic policy crossroads

The new European leadership (at the head of the European Commission and the ECB), combined with historically low real interest rates, provides a unique opportunity to rethink priorities in order to meet the challenges at hand (economic, financial, environmental and security challenges). In economic terms, strengthening Europe and improving its competitiveness means tackling all these challenges simultaneously. At the level of economic policy, the link between monetary and fiscal policy must inevitably be rethought. But that's not enough. The expansionary policy mix must be accompanied by an improvement in the financial architecture. We identify two pillars on which the European authorities shold be able to act significantly in 2020-21: the Capital Market Union and budgetary rules. This is a prerequisite for dealing with the inevitable macrofinancial shocks that the future holds. Against this backdrop, the voices of Christine Lagarde and Ursula von Der Leyen (Presidents of the ECB and the Commission respectively) are eagerly awaited.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

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