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PhD, Senior Economist
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
Many of the factors that challenged EM currencies in 2015 are likely to continue in the year ahead. Emerging Markets are caught between tightening policy rates in the US, a free-fall in commodity prices, which is partially driven by a China slowdown, and heightened idiosyncratic risks.
Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Bastien DRUT
Using a fundamental and statistical approach, we establish a classification of the emerging economies that groups similar profiles together. We focus on 20 emerging economies and collect 14 macroeconomic variables on a quarterly basis, which we group into four areas: (i) macroeconomic outlook, (ii) quality of public balance sheets, (iii) investment and savings, and (iv) vulnerability.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Julien MOUSSAVI
Will the final act of the “Great Divide” between the Fed and the ECB result in a liquidity tantrum? The current bond environment is wholly extraordinary. Neither the recovery in rates nor the bond volatility inherent in a low-rate environment can quite account for it.
Marc-Ali BEN ABDALLAH, Karine HERVE, Julien MOUSSAVI