BERTONCINI Sergio

2021.09 - slider this month's topic
Monthly Cross Asset 8.09.2021 Special Europe: investing in the recovery

As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside.

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Monthly Cross Asset 8.09.2021 HY default rates: recent and expected trends

Persistent supportive funding conditions and the improved macro picture are consistent with a current and expected benign picture for US and European default cy...

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Monthly Cross Asset 2.07.2021 Euro fixed income: EGB supply/demand dynamics to improve in H2-21

EMU-10 EGB net issuance, net of ECB QE purchases, is likely to be negative in H2 this year for three main reasons: 1) front loading of sovereign debt supply in ...

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Monthly Cross Asset 5.05.2021 A deep dive into ECB stimulus and its support for Euro fixed-income ma...

March saw ECB increasing its PEPP purchases and injecting higher than expected liquidity through a successful TLTRO tender. In this piece, our analysis dives in...

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Monthly Cross Asset 30.03.2021 Speculative grade default cycle: an earlier peak and an expected benig...
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Extraordinary policy intervention has made this HY default cycle unusually short-lived, helping to limit quite significantly the rise in defaults among mid- and...

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Monthly Cross Asset 3.03.2021 Credit spreads vs bond yields in the current cycle
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The move in rates is just one factor of the macro backdrop that can drive spread trends, but one that worked quite well in past cycles and therefore worth focus...

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Monthly Cross Asset 2.02.2021 Supply vs demand of EMU EGB in 2021
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QE potential to absorb the supply of sovereign debt looks strong in 2021.

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Investment Talks 15.01.2021 Italy: ECB's umbrella to protect bond market, despite uncertain politi...
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Investors on the Italian government bonds market should consider any slip in the Italian bond market as an opportunity to increase their exposure.

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Monthly Cross Asset 4.11.2020 HY default cycle and rating changes: how it is "different" this time
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Despite a severe macro contraction, policy reaction to the covid-crisis limited most of corporates’ rating migration and HY defaults to low-rated debt.

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