BERTONCINI Sergio

2022.01 - Cross Asset January 2022
Monthly Cross Asset 5.01.2022 Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

The three major central banks issued restrictive signals last week. The banks have succeeded in changing the course of their monetary policies without harming the markets.

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Monthly Cross Asset 6.12.2021 ESG bond market bound to deliver another record year of growth

Global ESG bond markets are bound to deliver another record year of new issuance volumes, led by broad-based dynamic activity in all its major segments.

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Research Center - 2022 EGB supply vs ECB QE
Monthly Cross Asset 2.11.2021 2022 EGB supply vs ECB QE

We expect a further slowing of growth in Eurozone public debt in 2022, mirroring the 2021 trend vs. 2020 which saw a peak in net issuance, while EU bond supply is likely to remain close to the 2021 level.

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Monthly Cross Asset 8.09.2021 Special Europe: investing in the recovery

As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside.

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Monthly Cross Asset 8.09.2021 HY default rates: recent and expected trends

Persistent supportive funding conditions and the improved macro picture are consistent with a current and expected benign picture for US and European default cycles, which are likely to remain on a downward trend in the coming months.

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Monthly Cross Asset 2.07.2021 Euro fixed income: EGB supply/demand dynamics to improve in H2-21

EMU-10 EGB net issuance, net of ECB QE purchases, is likely to be negative in H2 this year for three main reasons: 1) front loading of sovereign debt supply in H1, 2) roughly 60% of yearly bond redemptions still to come, and 3) ECB QE purchases to remain steadily high. The supranational debt market will keep growing remarkably, driven by NGEU EU funding, following SURE bond issues in H1, with the ECB likely to keep playing a supportive role in this segment, too.

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Monthly Cross Asset 5.05.2021 A deep dive into ECB stimulus and its support for Euro fixed-income markets

March saw ECB increasing its PEPP purchases and injecting higher than expected liquidity through a successful TLTRO tender. In this piece, our analysis dives into QE recently published figures, demand/supply balance of Euro fixed-income markets and PEPP expected trends. ECB’s role is going to remain prominent in supporting both sovereign and corporate debt.

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Monthly Cross Asset 30.03.2021 Speculative grade default cycle: an earlier peak and an expected benign trend
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Extraordinary policy intervention has made this HY default cycle unusually short-lived, helping to limit quite significantly the rise in defaults among mid- and high-rated speculative grade companies. A turn into a more benign falling trend over the next quarters looks likely, in light of improved macro perspectives, expected progress in vaccinations and encouraging signals from financial drivers.

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Monthly Cross Asset 3.03.2021 Credit spreads vs bond yields in the current cycle
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The move in rates is just one factor of the macro backdrop that can drive spread trends, but one that worked quite well in past cycles and therefore worth focusing on in the current recovery phase.

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