Summary
The road ahead for central banks and the USD
In a low-trust world that is becoming increasingly predatory, investors should expect supply shocks to become a new norm and the distribution of economic gains to stay uneven. Another result of the global order fragmenting is the rise of fiercer competition between countries. However, this competition is no longer limited to trade, tech, industrial leadership or energy security; it is instead being shaped by a relentless search for capital at the public and private level.
The road ahead for central banks
The USD bear case faces a monetary-policy test
We entered 2026 expecting expensive valuations and Fed easing, alongside an administration increasingly focused on limiting the cost of financing a deteriorating fiscal position. Together, these conditions were expected to gradually normalise the USD.
The USD bear case faces a monetary-policy...
Authors
