Fixed income

Understanding recent turmoil in Kazakhstan and its evolution, as well as the implications on its economy and potential geopolitical consequences in the region.

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After an outbreak that initially affected developed countries and China, Covid-19 has become an emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) pandemic.

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Halloween ‘ghosts’ of Fed tapering, the Evergrande crisis, and the earnings season did not scare the markets. The Fed telegraphed its message well: while keeping the option to adjust tapering depending on the state of the economy, it reiterated the “transitory” inflation narrative.

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As the global economy recovers from its pandemic scars and inflation makes its first comeback in decades, the world is preparing to face its greatest ever challenges: the energy transition to fight the inexorable climate crisis and the development of an inclusive growth model.

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Like it or not, the alignment of the planets regarding inflation will last for a while.

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Eurozone and US sovereign bond markets have partially reversed the decline recorded over the summer.

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EMU-10 EGB net issuance, net of ECB QE purchases, is likely to be negative in H2 this year for three main reasons: 1) front loading of sovereign debt supply in H1, 2) roughly 60% of yearly bond redemptions still to come, and 3) ECB QE purchases to remain steadily high. The supranational debt market will keep growing remarkably, driven by NGEU EU funding, following SURE bond issues in H1, with the ECB likely to keep playing a supportive role in this segment, too.

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What matters to fixed income investors is the macro-financial environment that will prevail after the strong rebound in growth and inflation expected in H2.

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Domestic demand, ‘Make in India’, and possible inclusion in fixed income indices

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