Summary
Topic of the Month
How long can the Central Banks’ divergence last
- The divergence of Central Bank policy rates is unlikely to significantly impact exchange rates, as other core currencies are not weak relative to recent history and market expectations of terminal rates in Europe are similar to those in the US.
- Global financial conditions are strongly influenced by US longend yields, and there is a risk of the term premium rising if US deficit and debt projections deteriorate.
- Although not in our baseline scenario, an energy supply and price shock would weaken European exchange rates and rapidly transmit to domestic inflation.
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How long can the Central Banks’ divergence...
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy
- Macroeconomic focus: China’s policy choices in a divided world
- Macroeconomic snapshot
- Main and alternative scenarios
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Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy...
Global Investment Views
Rotation and broadening in equities has started
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, AI exuberance and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally-broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs.
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Global Investment Views - August 2024
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
July/August 2024
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