Topic of the Month

Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession

Recent stress in parts of the banking sector will raise funding costs and reduce lending to many sectors. Now we expect the US economy to shrink by - 1.1% in 2023, driven by a contraction in domestic demand. Eurozone growth should stagnate amid inflation remaining high.

Financial stability concerns should drive the US economy into recession

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy

  • Macroeconomic focus: Disinflationary trend to ease pressure on central banks to hike further
  • Emerging markets: Scenario reassessment favours EM over DM
  • Macroeconomic snapshot
  • Central banks watch: DM CB to turn cautious, EM CB appear less affected by market turmoil
  • Geopolitics: Bank failures will have political consequences
  • Policy: EU: a protectionist industrial policy in the making
  • Scenarios and risks 
  • Amundi Institute models: Yield curve fair value – Nelson-Siegel model
  • Infographic - Markets in charts: Equities & Bonds
  • Commodities: Limited downside on oil, but confidence should recover
  • Currencies: The strict link between the Fed and the dollar
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - April 2023

Global Investment Views

Crisis memories return in vulnerable markets

March brought a wake-up call to markets after a complacent start to the year. The trigger was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other US regional banks, followed by Credit Suisse in Europe. The repricing of core yields and changes to market expectations regarding central bank actions have been massive in both the United States and Europe.

Global Investment Views - April 2023


RC - Author - DEFEND Monica
Head of Amundi Institute & Chief Strategist
RC - Author - Vincent Mortier
Group Chief Investment Officer
Germano Matteo
Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer