
14-15 June FOMC meeting: Fed becoming worried about inflatio...
The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
More 5 to 10 minutes2022 will be the “year of reckoning” for DM economies when they will test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic phase and face the challenge of retuning to normality...
More 5 to 10 minutesA second derivative stagflationary environment of decelerating growth amid sustained inflationary pressures. The fiscal lever continues to play a pivotal role.
More 5 to 10 minutesAs the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside.
More > 10 minutesGoldilocks continues to allow a tempered risk on positioning. Longer term, growth will likely revert to potential amid a normalised inflation rate (at least in the US).
More 5 to 10 minutesAs part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control.
More > 10 minutesThe global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels.
More < 5 minutesThe pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
More 5 to 10 minutesFrom unemployment and inflation to climate change and social inequality, central banks (CB) are on the frontlines. In the context of the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s strategic reviews there are now open debates about their new tools, targets and mandates.
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