USARDI Annalisa

As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside.

• PDF

Goldilocks continues to allow a tempered risk on positioning. Longer term, growth will likely revert to potential amid a normalised inflation rate (at least in the US).

• PDF

As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control.

• PDF
• 16

The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels.

• PDF
• 60

The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.

• PDF
• 15

From unemployment and inflation to climate change and social inequality, central banks (CB) are on the frontlines. In the context of the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s strategic reviews there are now open debates about their new tools, targets and mandates.

• PDF
• 24

While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.

• PDF
• 10

2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average.

• PDF
• 33

From the CPI data, in particular the HCPI, one would get the sense that inflation has decelerated and stabilised somewhat. Yet, alternative CPI measures stand well above headline CPI and show that inflationary pressures are clearly present in the US economy, as also reflected by the core CPI measure.

• PDF
• 27