Italian government crisis, likely outcome: snap elections the most likely outcome. Prime Minister Draghi would remain at the helm of a caretaker government, until a new one is formed after the elections.

The growth outlook for Italy has been revised down on tighter financing conditions and monetary policy normalization, coupled with the energy crisis in Europe and global value chain bottlenecks.

The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels.

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From unemployment and inflation to climate change and social inequality, central banks (CB) are on the frontlines. In the context of the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s strategic reviews there are now open debates about their new tools, targets and mandates.

• 24

On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

• 18

After underperforming against its peers for two decades in macroeconomic terms and following the deepest double-dip recession in its history (in 2008-2009 and in 2012-2013), the Italian economy is growing again, partially thanks to the strong, synchronised growth seen across the Eurozone, but also partially due to some structural improvements that have boosted competitiveness.

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