Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.
Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV, Sosi VARTANESYAN
Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.
Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV
The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT). Post the first round, Bolsonaro appeared to be the favourite, based on discontent with established politics. However, Brazil’s political path is unlikely to be straight-forward: a solid coalition is necessary to set important reforms, but this does not appear to be on the cards.
Alessia BERARDI, Yerlan SYZDYKOV