As the war unfolds in Ukraine, the understanding of its impact on the global economy is changing rapidly and some excellent analysis has already been produced. In this paper, Amundi Technology and Amundi Institute have used the Causality Link platform to analyse the current state of our international situation in order to provide some projections regarding the future. By combining technology, information access, artificial intelligence (AI) and research, Amundi has the capacity to analyse in real time the impacts on the global economy. Two elements stand out from our analysis:
- First, European car manufacturers have been hit badly by the supply chain fallout of this war, with no relief in sight.
- Second, a predictable food shortage (mainly regarding wheat) will hit Africa in the coming months and years and will exacerbate an already difficult situation due to the recurring drought issues – in Egypt and Yemen, in particular.
This is by no means an exhaustive description of the consequences of the war, but a demonstration of the power of Natural Language Processing (NLP) applied to over 50,000 texts per day in 27 languages, with a focus on real-time causal link extraction. The Causality Link platform relies only on the automatic processing of news, which provides a unique ‘wisdom of crowds’ point of view. Such evidence can help provide a deeper understanding of AI processes regarding the global economy. This paper is the result of a collaboration between Amundi Institute, Amundi Technology and Causality Link