The banking turmoil of the past month saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the 160-year old Credit Suisse being taken over by rival UBS. While the big market swings triggered by these events have now subsided, economic scars appear inevitable.  

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro Economics, to find out what has changed and why these events have tipped the balance towards a gloomier outlook in the US and a more protracted recession. They discuss what the impact on economic growth and monetary policy in the US might be and how this can have a knock-on effect on the labour market. They also turn their attention to Europe and the continued focus on the ECB’s fight against inflation.

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Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession
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Authors

RC - Swaha Pattanaik
Swaha PATTANAIK
Head of Publishing and Digital Strategy, Amundi Investment Institute
RC - Author - PRADHAN Mahmood
Mahmood PRADHAN
Head of Global Macro, Amundi Investment Institute