Topic of the Month

Europe: time for fiscal consolidation

The public finances of Eurozone countries began to improve in 2023 and fiscal consolidation will intensify in most Eurozone countries during 2024. Still, fiscal vulnerability – particularly for the most heavily-indebted countries – will rise over time, leading to a higher probability that public debt will not stabilise. The aim of the new fiscal rules is to ensure the long term sustainability of public finances, but funding for the green transition could suffer.

Topic of the month - Europe: time for fiscal consolidation
Europe: time for fiscal consolidation

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy

  • Macroeconomic focus: Core services remain pivotal to the disinflationary process
  • Emerging markets: China & India
  • Macroeconomic snapshot
  • Central banks watch: More and more CBs approaching the pivot
  • Geopolitics: 2024 a year of bigger downside risks
  • Policy: Eurozone: mind public debt divergences
  • Scenarios and risks 
  • Amundi Investment Institute models: Cross Asset Sentinels Threshold (CAST)
  • Infographic - Markets in charts: Equities & Bonds
  • Commodities: Modest oil upside still ahead
  • Currencies: The fall of the USD and the “early cycle signal”
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - March 2023
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy...

Global Investment Views

Bonds and EM stand out in the Santa Rally

Declining inflation pressures and a relatively dovish Fed caused bonds and risk assets to gain in recent weeks. But risks related to speculation are rising, as markets have already priced in lot of gains expected in 2024. We agree that central banks (CB) will pivot in 2024, but believe rate cuts would start from May/June. The reasons behind this moves are also important. In our view, a slowing economy (not just slowing inflation) will push the Fed towards easing, as the bank will be watchful of any upside surprises on inflation.

Amundi Global Investment Views
Global Investment Views - January 2024

Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts

January 2024

Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - May 2023
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts...


RC - Author - DEFEND Monica
Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist
RC - Author - Vincent Mortier
Group Chief Investment Officer
Germano Matteo
Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer