ABSTRACT
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term. There is a general trend towards normalisation of price valuations. Central banks have started to put forward significant (and expected) rate normalisation policies to tame inflation. The medium- to long-term macro and market landscapes are likely to be affected by systemic shifts resulting from the transition towards a greener world: increased inflation, yields and spread risks translating into increased long-term volatility across our investment universe as well as subdued EPS growth and valuations. Due to higher starting yield levels and the zero interest rate policy up till now, bondholders can benefit from higher carry returns in the medium term and beyond. Starting credit spreads are high and even if they can stabilise in the short term, we assume they can only normalise in the long term considering the uncertain outlook in the medium term. We see potential for default probabilities to increase in the medium term. Overall, expected returns on credits are appealing in absolute and relative (vs government) terms. Continuing supply-side and material constraints, combined with higher borrowing rates, will put all equities under significant pressure. Moreover, the likelihood of recession is increasing and this could weigh on performance in the short to medium term. On the positive side, equity valuations have improved because of the recent correction. Hence, final expectations are improving vs the previous quarter, crystallising moderate single-digit expectations.
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