Themes for Q4 and beyond for Europe
Key trends in Europe
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The resurgence of Covid-19 cases in some countries is an area for attention, but should not lead to new generalised lockdowns due to vaccinations which are progressing at a strong pace. |
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Economic growth is sound and should peak this year, but remain sustained during 2022, led by reviving consumer demand (fuelled by pent-up savings) and government support schemes. |
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Global supply shortages/bottlenecks, the reopening of economies and surging energy prices are causing an inflation uptick, affirming our view that not all components of inflation will be ‘temporary’. |
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Monetary policy should stay reasonably accommodative, with an aim of maintaining easy financial conditions despite indications that the ECB’s asset buying is changing. We believe any such changes will depend on the strength of recovery. |
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Fiscal stimulus remains ample and the implementation of the Next Generation EU plan will accelerate the energy transition and the EU transformation. |
Source: Amundi as of 31 October 2021.
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