This document includes the perspective of Amundi on asset returns used to build reference portfolios for our institutional clients. A publication issued annually in February covers the major macro and financial foundations of our views, while this one provides a quarterly update of our medium and long-term expected returns by asset class.

Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown followed by a probable mild economic recession in the next three to five years. According to our calculations, the probability of drifting into a recession in the next three to five years is over 50%. Europe may enter a mild recession before the US, based on the rationale that the ECB has less room for maneuver, countries have little fiscal space and political impasses continue leading to delays in fiscal plans.

For further details, please refer to Asset Class Return Forecasts Q1 2019 available at Asset Class Views: Medium and long term expected returns.


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RC - Author -  GEORGES Delphine
Senior Fixed Income Strategist, Amundi Investment Institute
Head of Quant Solutions, Multi Asset Solutions
CFA, Senior Quantitative Analyst, OCIO Solutions