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10.08.2020 68

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

Published August 10, 2020

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Abstract


All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating analysis of key driving factors, confirms last quarter’s future sequence of macro-financial regimes registering some slight fine tuning in terms of recovery forecasts coherent with the macro picture taking shape. We maintain that the subsequent recovery will not happen immediately, with spurts of relief rallies not quite reaching pre-pandemic levels accompanied by the cooling of monetary and fiscal policies, eventually landing in a late cycle or potentially an asset reflation regime if central banks remain ultra-supportive.

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