Geopolitics

Election outcome: The most likely winner in terms of votes and seats will either be the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Likely scenarios include the ‘traffic-light’ coalition (SPD-Greens-pro-market Liberal Democratic Party, FDP) or the ‘Jamaica’ coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP). However, other combinations are possible.

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Profound changes in the international arena are underway. Together the EU, China and the United States are the three largest economies in the world. Whereas, previously, economic and geopolitical issues were treated separately, it is increasingly clear that the United States and China are using their economic power for geopolitical purposes. Such geopolitical leadership has economic implications.

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Eighteen months after the first Covid-19 cases hit China, the outbreak is still uncontrolled globally and remains the main source of economic uncertainty outside Northern Asia. As long as there is no treatment, access to effective vaccines is the main factor in returning to a ‘normal’ life. Only a handful of countries can produce jabs on a large scale, whereas we already know it will take years to reach herd immunity. Therefore, vaccines have become a form of geopolitical soft power, which exacerbates or redesigns the influence of the US, Europe, China and Russia.

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The stunning developments on Capitol Hill will not change the significance of the Georgia election, which will have far-reaching implications

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While the title sounds dramatic, what happens in Georgia on 5 January is critical to US policy over the next four years.

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The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy, that is, higher taxes. 

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There are many pitfalls looming.

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Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States.

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US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213  (270 to win).

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