31/03/2025 Economy & Markets The direction of long term rates in an era of high debt High public debt and adverse demographics suggest long-term interest rates may remain elevated, with increased volatility and global contagion risks.
27/03/2024 Emerging Markets Unveiling the value of EM debt The current landscape presents an opportune moment to reconsider the role of Emerging Markets Debt in portfolio allocation, with high nominal yields and...
5/03/2024 Economy & Markets Can the US sustain a rising debt burden? Dive deep into the intricacies of the burgeoning US debt crisis and its profound implications for the finance sector. Explore nuanced fiscal adjustment...
17/10/2023 Economy & Markets Central banks’ endgame: a new policy paradigm Dive into the effects of central bank balance sheet normalization on financial markets, government bond yields, and the evolving investment landscape....
19/06/2023 Economy & Markets 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay Despite many similarities between the inflationary period in the 1970s and in the 2020s, the two scenarios are not identical.
26/08/2022 Economy & Markets Only a new policy regime can stop rampant inflation, but don... The only way to tackle the new inflationary regime is a credible and abrupt change in the approach to policy: but this seems unlikely to happen.
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor vie... In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between...
25/07/2022 Economy & Markets Towards new fiscal rules in Europe After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central...
2/06/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch... Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.
2/03/2022 Geopolitics Shifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further st... Understanding the long-term implications of the Russian-Ukraine conflict in the regime shift in course.
18/01/2022 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #13 - Money and psychology of inflation:... Understanding the linkage between money velocity, psychology of inflation in the regime shift, and consequence for investors.
16/09/2021 Economy & Markets Shifts & Narratives #8 - Post-summer check-up on the regime ... Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio returned around 19% on a one-year...
9/04/2021 Portfolio Strategy Shifts & Narratives #1 - Do not give up on fundamental valua... Today, most investors are at a loss regarding what to think of the notion of value and valuations and, even most importantly, how to use it in portfolio...