The GIV document elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, different Investment Platforms and Macro-Strategy teams.

In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies.

After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central Banks committing to tame inflation, puts the delicate fiscal and monetary equilibrium under the spotlight.

The GIV document elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, different Investment Platforms and Macro-Strategy teams.

The H2 economic outlook will feature divergences in growth, inflation and policy mix across regions. Stagflation risk will be a common feature across Developed Markets (DM). In addition, since there will no longer be a synchronous global cycle, country risk is back.

Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.

Understanding why the idea of the fiscal 'free lunch' is an illusion while global debt remains at record highs, and moving into a more fragmented world.

The GIV document elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, different Investment Platforms and Macro-Strategy teams.

We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility.