Shifts & Narratives

2021.10 - Shifts & Narratives #10 - Slider-1390x467
Thematic Paper 15.10.2021 Shifts & Narratives #10 - China is finally emerging from the US’s shadow

Today, with developed market equities highly correlated and bond yields remaining subdued, investors are searching for other sources of income. In this respect, China’s assets could prove to be a useful diversifier for global portfolios, as they are likely to become increasingly independent from US ones.

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Thematic Paper 1.10.2021 Shifts & Narratives #9 - Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of higher inflation

The return of inflation is clearly one of the top themes of 2021 and the post-pandemic economic revival.

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Thematic Paper 16.09.2021 Shifts & Narratives #8 - Post-summer check-up on the regime shift

Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio returned around 19% on a one-year horizon, well above even the rosiest expectations of the recovery from the Covid-19-induced slump. The S&P 500 is up +100% from last year’s bottom – an iconic figure that says a lot about the buoyant market sentiment.

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Thematic Paper 14.06.2021 Shifts & Narratives #7 - Opening the Pandora’s box of social risks: Consequences for investors

The Covid-19 crisis can be considered a turning point for social issues: it has put global socio-economic inequalities in the spotlight and made them more concrete than ever before. It has also clearly shown the tragic effects, from an economic and societal perspective, that systemic shocks can have on unequal, non-resilient societies.

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Shifts & Narratives #6 - Technology trends in Asset Management and Saving Industry
Thematic Paper 9.06.2021 Shifts & Narratives #6 - Technology trends in Asset Management and Saving Industry

These are days to be optimistic if you are an Asset Manager. And this is not just because the industry has been doing well and the fundamentals remain strong going forward. The future looks bright because the same technological forces that are being so disruptive, present an equal number of opportunities for those who are prepared to embrace change.

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Shifts & Narratives #5 - Regime shifts
Thematic Paper 8.06.2021 Shifts & Narratives #5 - A unique crisis that opens the way to multiple regime shifts

The Covid-19 crisis is exceptional in many ways. It is the most serious health crisis since the Spanish flu a century ago. This crisis resulted in an unprecedented contraction of activity in 2020 and in the deepest global recession since World War II. However, this recession has been the shortest and was not accompanied by a financial crisis thanks to fiscal and monetary policy responses, which have cushioned the economic shock. The exceptional measures put in place aim to buy the time needed to emerge from the health crisis.

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Thematic Paper 26.05.2021 Shifts & Narratives #4 - In search of a new international order

Profound changes in the international arena are underway. Together the EU, China and the United States are the three largest economies in the world. Whereas, previously, economic and geopolitical issues were treated separately, it is increasingly clear that the United States and China are using their economic power for geopolitical purposes. Such geopolitical leadership has economic implications.

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Thematic Paper 19.05.2021 Shifts & Narratives #3 - The ‘make it or break it moment’: why investors should care about COP26?

The Conference of the Parties (COP)26 in Glasgow has been hailed as a turning point in the global fight regarding climate change amid a new US administration and a long and strenuous exit from the Covid-19 pandemic. Six years on from the Paris agreement, the objective is clear: limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial averages, which means reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and cutting them by half this decade.

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Thematic Paper 26.04.2021 Shifts & Narratives #2 - Inflation: something deep awakens
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One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, we wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint.

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