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02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

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Slider

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment

Economic and corporate-profit recoveries continue along a gradual, upward-sloping catch-up process, where growth speed and composition will be key to landing in a “recovery financial regime” towards year’s end. Transition to the new financial regime will continue amid a sequel of relapses in the real economy, where policy boosters will prove critical, moving the needle between base and risk scenario. Over the next three to six months, while keeping the risk budget unchanged, progressively rotate risk from US HY into deep value/cyclical equities. Global IG remains supported by central banks’ purchasing programs and offer palatable yields. Lastly, expansive monetary policies and safe haven nature will support gold.

Monica DEFEND, Lorenzo PORTELLI

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Macroeconomic picture - October 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Markets scenarios & risks - October 2020

Monthly update. We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.

Amundi Research

Vignette - Thematic - Japan

Vignette - Thematic - Japan

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Japan: Policy continuity expected under Suganomics

Striving to consolidate power with a snap election, Mr. Suga vows continuity of Abenomics and hints at additional fiscal stimulus. Domestic politics aside, we expect global factors and positioning to play a key role for Japanese equities and currency.

Claire HUANG, Federico CESARINI, Eric MIJOT

Vignette - Thematics - Fixed Income

Vignette - Thematics - Fixed Income

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Fixed income dynamics in the current monetary and fiscal landscape

The global economy rebounded quickly during the summer from the coronavirus pandemic. In this phase of recovery, central banks played a key role in the massive supply of credit to governments and companies. To tackle the health crisis, almost all governments implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus and support measures, including corporate loan guarantees. At the same time, major central banks increased their purchases of sovereign debt to levels never seen before, played a backstop role in the corporate debt market and provided cheap liquidity to banks (in the case of the ECB). In a second phase, we expect government to implement stimulus measures. What will be the impact for the fixed income market?

Valentine AINOUZ, Delphine GEORGES

Vignette - Thematic - France Germany

Vignette - Thematic - France Germany

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Is France still on track to reduce its competitiveness gap vs. Germany?

Germany clearly outperformed France on most macroeconomic metrics in the last two decades. Yet France has implemented many supply-side reforms since 2014. Despite the larger damage taken by France from the current Covid crisis, the lagged effect of these reforms can still help reduce the competitiveness gap with Germany after a few years. However, a key driver of medium-term relative performance will also be how both economies adapt to major “disruption”-related sectoral challenges.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

You asked, we answer

Our Global Views team attempts to answer some of the questions often asked by our clients.

Didier BOROWSKI, Pierre BLANCHET, Tristan PERRIER

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03.09.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Eurozone government bonds A supportive mix of remarkable funding progress and ECB QE still to come

Funding progress looked quite encouraging at July end for Eurozone government bonds, as roughly 80% of estimated yearly net issuance have been placed, mostly (more than 50%) in just four months, between April and July. Putting remaining supply in perspectives with ECB flows, the technical picture for EZ government bonds looks friendly to the current environment of low core yields and subsequent, persisting search for carry.

Sergio BERTONCINI

Head of Rates and FX Research

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