/ Research Center

15.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Europe at an economic policy crossroads

The new European leadership (at the head of the European Commission and the ECB), combined with historically low real interest rates, provides a unique opportunity to rethink priorities in order to meet the challenges at hand (economic, financial, environmental and security challenges). In economic terms, strengthening Europe and improving its competitiveness means tackling all these challenges simultaneously. At the level of economic policy, the link between monetary and fiscal policy must inevitably be rethought. But that's not enough. The expansionary policy mix must be accompanied by an improvement in the financial architecture. We identify two pillars on which the European authorities shold be able to act significantly in 2020-21: the Capital Market Union and budgetary rules. This is a prerequisite for dealing with the inevitable macrofinancial shocks that the future holds. Against this backdrop, the voices of Christine Lagarde and Ursula von Der Leyen (Presidents of the ECB and the Commission respectively) are eagerly awaited.

14.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - January 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

14.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - January 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

06.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Corporate fundamentals are at the centre of the game

Over the last decade, easy financial conditions encouraged an increase in sovereign and corporate debt. Indeed, the leverage of American companies has reached record high levels and US corporate debt has been used for financial risk-taking to fund corporate payments to investors, as well as for mergers and acquisitions. At the opposite, the leverage of European companies has remained at low levels as European companies have remained more cautious over this cycle. In 2019, we have evolved in a new regime: the global economy has entered a synchronised slowdown and major central banks have returned to an easing stance. What are the risks for companies in this new context? We are following closely: The downgrade risk in the US Investment Grade universe. Net leverage for US issuers have resumed their upward trajectory in recent months. In 2020: (1) companies to make a trade-off between maintaining share buy backs and the stability or their debt (2) the downgrade risk to increase among firms facing increase pressure on profits. The default rate risk for low-quality high-yield bonds. Sluggish earning growth poses the biggest threat for companies to pay interest on their debt despite the low cost of financing. Indeed, at this stage of the cycle, we think that interest coverage is more closely related to earnings than to its interest expense: interest coverage could be quickly eroded by a hit to earnings. A selective approach is required in the low-rated Euro and US High Yield segments.

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

06.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - December 2019

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

05.12.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

06.11.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

A Brexit deal: probably, but not just yet

Risks of a no-deal Brexit have receded materially over the past few weeks, implying that the Bank of England is now more likely to keep its monetary policy on hold, in a wait-and-see mode over the next year. UK nominal yields have already removed most of the no-deal risk, having repriced up by almost 30bps from their October lows, and are seen moving more in line with the global trend in nominal rates going forward.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Tristan PERRIER, Silvia DI SILVIO

06.11.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - November 2019

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

06.11.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

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Europe at an economic policy crossroads

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - January 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - January 2020

Corporate fundamentals are at the centre of the game

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - December 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2019

A Brexit deal: probably, but not just yet

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - November 2019

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2019

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