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28.02.2020 - Thought of the Day

South Africa’s budget was released on Wednesday

Public deficit will widen and debt won’t stabilize: The consolidated budget balance released at -6.3% of GDP for 2019/20 given a revenue shortfall of Rand 21 billion. For 2020/21,revenue is projected to be R1.58 trillion, or 29.2% of GDP. Expenditure is projected at R1.95 trillion, or 36% of GDP.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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Slider

18.02.2020 - Thought of the Day

European Commission Forecasts

The newly released Winter 2020 Economic Forecast by the European Commission projects the Eurozone economy to keep expanding in 2020 on a moderate and steady growth path.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

Vignette

Vignette

10.10.2019 - Thought of the Day

September Eurozone PMIs signal a widening contraction in manufacturing and services

September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors.

Gregorio VANIN

Macroeconomic Research

Labor Market

Labor Market

08.07.2019 - Thought of the Day

US payrolls come back with a surprise

The Payrolls report was broadly strong, in line with a view of a still resilient labour market: employment bounced back from last month’s weakness and was well above consensus, while the unemployment rate inched higher to 3.7% (3.6 in May), due to an increase in the labour force participation rate (up from 62.9% from 62.8%). Hourly earnings growth is moderating but remaining near this cycle highs.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

FED

FED

25.06.2019 - Thought of the Day

The message from the Fed is clear: rate cuts are coming!

4 key takeaways from the Fed meeting: Powell has done a good job!; FOMC has downgraded the assessment of economic activity growth from “solid” to “moderate” and “uncertainties about this outlook have increased”; The Fed is concerned about inflation; The Fed suggests that the next move is a cut.

Valentine AINOUZ

Deputy Head of Developed Market Strategy Research

2019-04-29 US GDP Q1

2019-04-29 US GDP Q1

29.04.2019 - Thought of the Day

The preliminary estimate for US Q1 GDP looks strong, but not all that glitters is gold

Signs of deceleration in domestic demand confirm our outlook for a progressive slowdown in the second half of the year, as we expect the impact from the fiscal stimulus to fade.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

2019.03.07 - Italian Economy - Vignette

2019.03.07 - Italian Economy - Vignette

07.03.2019 - Thought of the Day

The Italian economy expanded by 0.8% in 2018

Q4 GDP was revised up by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) to -0,1% QoQ (-0.2% prior).

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

2019-01-31 govt shutdown-Vignette

2019-01-31 govt shutdown-Vignette

01.02.2019 - Thought of the Day

35 Days of Government Shutdown – it’s over (for now)

The US Government shutdown is temporarily over...

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

Vignette

Vignette

15.01.2019 - Thought of the Day

The US Government Shutdown becomes the longest in history

The US Government shutdown started on December 22 2018 is currently the longest ever, with little evidence of end in sight.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

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