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Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of Developed markets, where we have been lowering our forecasts.
The distribution of share of national income to labour versus capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Amundi believes that the Covid-19 crisis – together with other factors – will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades.
Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis growth levels will be long and uncertain. Against this backdrop, investors should be ready to play rotations in their portfolios, favouring cyclical themes but also keeping a strong focus on quality.
Few days left before the most divisive US presidential elections. If the polls in the US are accurate, Joe Biden will be elected the next president of the US. But as experienced in the last election, the polls could be wrong, and maybe Trump will win again. As the election grows closer, Covid-19 cases are rising in many parts of the world and is reemerging as a threat to the global economy. Investors are searching for answers on what the election will mean for the markets going forward.