/ Research Center

08.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Biden and Democrats take control despite Trump protesters

Georgia runoffs results: The 2020 US general elections ended on 6 January 2021 with a Democratic sweep of two critical Georgia Senate seats, giving Democrats a slim majority and control of government until at least the next round of Congressional elections in two years. The stunning developments on Capitol Hill will not change the significance of the Georgia election, which will have far-reaching implications for Biden’s policy agenda and financial markets.

Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

18.12.2020 - Investment Talks

Georgia Senate runoffs to determine future of Biden presidency

While the title sounds dramatic, what happens in Georgia on 5 January is critical to US policy over the next four years. Following the 3 November elections, it was looking like a divided government, with Joe Biden elected President and the Republicans holding the US Senate. But as the trickle in counting occurred in Georgia, it became evident that there will be runoff elections on 5 January for both Georgia Senate seats, after no candidate received the 50% majority mark required to avoid a runoff. This has paved the way for potential Democratic control of the Senate by the barest of majorities.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

17.11.2020 - Podcast

Blue Conversation - The US elections #3: Results - analysis & investment impacts

As the election of Joe Biden unfolds in legal challenges, Greg Valliere, Barron’s columnist, veteran non-partisan commentator on Washington developments, has provided his insights and analysis on the current outcome.

10.11.2020 - Investment Talks

2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided

Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

04.11.2020 - Investment Talks

US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.

Didier BOROWSKI, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Monica DEFEND

29.10.2020 - Podcast

Blue Conversation - The US elections #2: expectations and market scenarios on the eve of the US presidential elections

Few days left before the most divisive US presidential elections. If the polls in the US are accurate, Joe Biden will be elected the next president of the US. But as experienced in the last election, the polls could be wrong, and maybe Trump will win again. As the election grows closer, Covid-19 cases are rising in many parts of the world and is reemerging as a threat to the global economy. Investors are searching for answers on what the election will mean for the markets going forward.

27.10.2020 - Investment Talks

Election countdown: A Trump opening after the final Presidential debate?

President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden met in Nashville, Tennessee on Thursday 23 October for the final presidential debate. This is an important milestone in the campaign, and early indications the morning after the debate are that while both camps felt proud of their performance, it may persuade some undecided and GOP-leaning independent voters back to the Trump fold.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

01.10.2020 - Investment Talks

Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate

President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden. For Biden, it was to reassure voters that he has the mental and physical stamina to handle the office of the Presidency. Polls, surveys and the investment betting markets immediately following the debate indicated Biden with a clear advantage following one of the most raucous and chaotic debates in US history.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

14.11.2018 - Insights Paper

What lies ahead for the US economy and markets?

The robust performance of the US economy in 2018 has led to the supremacy of US risk assets compared to the rest of the world. Moving towards the end of the year and into 2019, global investors have started to raise questions about whether the US economy and business sector will continue to shine, how inflation will evolve, and which direction the Federal Reserve will take going forward.

Claudia BERTINO, Laura FIOROT, Kenneth J. TAUBES, Didier BOROWSKI, Annalisa USARDI, Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI, Eric MIJOT, Marco PIRONDINI

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Biden and Democrats take control despite Trump protesters

Georgia Senate runoffs to determine future of Biden presidency

Blue Conversation - The US elections #3: Results - analysis & investment impacts

2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided

US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

Blue Conversation - The US elections #2: expectations and market scenarios on the eve of the US presidential elections

Election countdown: A Trump opening after the final Presidential debate?

Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate

What lies ahead for the US economy and markets?

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