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Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

03.03.2020 - Expert Talk

Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Q4-2019 GDP figurewas released at6% yoy, higher than in Q3 (0.9%yoy): The main driver of this boom was private consumption that grew at 6.8% yoy and that was fueled by a huge expansion of credit to consumers, lower interest rates and a 15% rise in minimum wage.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

Slider

Slider

24.02.2020 - Expert Talk

South Africa Inflation

South African inflation came out higher in January: 4.5% yoy compared to 4% in December but is in the middle of the inflation target (3-6%) of the South African Central Bank (SARB). This acceleration in inflation is mainly explained by a sharp rise in transport prices linked to base effects of fuel prices (+ 13.7% in January against 2.4% the previous month).

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

IMG Turkey 600x400

IMG Turkey 600x400

10.02.2020 - Expert Talk

Turkey: inflation and monetary policy

The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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Slider

05.02.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Investment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed

While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle. Exceptional features of this cycle are lower growth due to trade war escalation, unprecedented low interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy and a fairly resilient labour market due to the strong domestic sector resilience. Notwithstanding these specificities, the 2020 is still compatible with a late cycle phase; but the most likely scenario for the end of 2021 is the transition into a correction phase

Annalisa USARDI, Lorenzo PORTELLI

Image U.S.

Image U.S.

14.01.2020 - Thematic Paper

U.S. inflation… what’s up?

From the CPI data, in particular the HCPI, one would get the sense that inflation has decelerated and stabilised somewhat.

Annalisa USARDI

CFA, Senior Economist

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Slider

09.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Screen the Euro fixed income market in the era of three ‘lows’

As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.

Hervé BOIRAL, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Eric BRARD, Gilles DAUPHINE'

2019.06.25 - TP -Turkey inflation

2019.06.25 - TP -Turkey inflation

25.06.2019 - Thematic Paper

Turkey: inflation, exchange rate’s pass-through and monetary policy

Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

FED

FED

25.06.2019 - Thought of the Day

The message from the Fed is clear: rate cuts are coming!

4 key takeaways from the Fed meeting: Powell has done a good job!; FOMC has downgraded the assessment of economic activity growth from “solid” to “moderate” and “uncertainties about this outlook have increased”; The Fed is concerned about inflation; The Fed suggests that the next move is a cut.

Valentine AINOUZ

Deputy Head of Developed Market Strategy Research

2019.05-expert talks FOMC

2019.05-expert talks FOMC

07.05.2019 - Expert Talk

On the Fed, inflation and growth

On the FOMC meeting: no news does not mean hawkish news. After its latest meeting, the FOMC hinted at no need for a change in the outlook for monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

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