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Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

24.02.2021 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - March 2021

If the start of 2021 led markets to question the no inflation forever mantra, the debate has been hotting up in February, with the US 10Y inflation breakeven reaching its highest level since 2014, pricing in higher inflation expectations. We are also seeing pricing pressure on the food and energy side. Despite this rising trend, absolute inflation levels remain subdued. Some inflationary pressure is more than expected this year on base effects. However, the problem is not this short-term rebound of inflation, but the change in the paradigm ahead.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

27.01.2021 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - February 2021

Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of DM, where we have been lowering our forecasts.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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15.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Italy: ECB's umbrella to protect bond market, despite uncertain political situation

Political situation: On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now. In our view, the most likely scenarios are: Prime Minister Giuseppe Contecould seek to win a confidence vote,with support from parties both inside and outside the ruling majority and also unaffiliated lawmakers (Gruppo Misto);Conte could step down, triggering a new round of talksthat could eventually lead to a new administration, headed by Conte himself or another Prime Minister, with support from the same alliance; or a caretaker administration could be appointed to manage the government until the next election.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

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12.01.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

2021 global outlook reassessed

As the Q420 is now closed, we confirm the “financial recovery regime” as our central scenario for 2021 with a higher conviction than in Q320. We expect better corporate fundamentals at a global level going forward. The rebound of EPS growth will eventually validate current asset price levels in the context of low interest rates. This explains our cautious optimism for the coming quarters. We have also analysed the sustainability of the ongoing risk rotation from Credit HY to value/cyclical equities. We confirm our constructive medium-term view with a continuation and maturing of the financial recovery regime.

Monica DEFEND

Global Head of Research

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21.10.2020 - Investment Talks

Time to reconsider US growth and value ?

The outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks has reached record levels, as has the valuation gap. The environment for growth stocks has been ideal: interest rates have plummeted, and US technology companies have become increasingly dominant in the United States and abroad. However, we believe this ideal environment is unlikely to last. Inflation -- which has been dormant for years -- may rise as a result of stimulus measures. Historically, value has outperformed growth during inflationary periods.

Marco PIRONDINI, Alec MURRAY

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02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment

Economic and corporate-profit recoveries continue along a gradual, upward-sloping catch-up process, where growth speed and composition will be key to landing in a “recovery financial regime” towards year’s end. Transition to the new financial regime will continue amid a sequel of relapses in the real economy, where policy boosters will prove critical, moving the needle between base and risk scenario. Over the next three to six months, while keeping the risk budget unchanged, progressively rotate risk from US HY into deep value/cyclical equities. Global IG remains supported by central banks’ purchasing programs and offer palatable yields. Lastly, expansive monetary policies and safe haven nature will support gold.

Monica DEFEND, Lorenzo PORTELLI

Vignette

Vignette

22.06.2020 - Podcast

Blue Research - The “Day After” series #6 – A possible inflationary cocktail

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary context, inflation is often overlooked.

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09.06.2020 - Expert Talk

The day after #6 - Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary context, inflation is often overlooked. This is a dangerous mistake, in our view. For investors, now more than ever, it is crucial to keep a very close eye on this metric—in particular, since we may be at the beginning of a complete regime shift.

Laetitia BALDESCHI, Claudia BERTINO, Juliette COHEN, Bastien DRUT, Laura FIOROT, Tristan PERRIER

Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

03.03.2020 - Expert Talk

Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Q4-2019 GDP figurewas released at6% yoy, higher than in Q3 (0.9%yoy): The main driver of this boom was private consumption that grew at 6.8% yoy and that was fueled by a huge expansion of credit to consumers, lower interest rates and a 15% rise in minimum wage.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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