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03.03.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

Covid, productivity and long-term growth: further secular stagnation or positive reversal?

While the spectacular Covid shock may easily lead to exaggerate extrapolations, it cannot be ruled out that it will matter for long-term productivity and growth. However, the effects could work both ways. Reasons why the current crisis could further worsen “secular stagnation” are many, yet there are also a channels through which it could work positively.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

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09.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Screen the Euro fixed income market in the era of three ‘lows’

As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.

Hervé BOIRAL, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Eric BRARD, Gilles DAUPHINE

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06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

Vignette 600*400 ECB

Vignette 600*400 ECB

25.09.2019 - Investment Talks

The ECB and the EU banking sector: some relief, with winners and losers

The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Ciaran CALLAGHAN

Image Slider Italian Gov

Image Slider Italian Gov

18.09.2019 - Investment Talks

View on Italy: beyond the short term

The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

Italian Politics Slider

Italian Politics Slider

21.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Italian Politics take centre stage

Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Didier BOROWSKI, Matteo GERMANO, Lorenzo PORTELLI, Annalisa USARDI

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Vignette

17.12.2018 - Thought of the Day

Italian Industrial Production shows signs of life, amid concerns of economic contraction

Italian industrial production comes back to growth in October, with a small increase on a monthly basis (0.1%) but posting a more significant pick-up on a 3m/3m basis.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

Maroc

Maroc

15.11.2018 - Thematic Paper

Morocco: moderate economic risks

Growth is expected to slow down compared to 2017 but should stabilise at around 3% this year and in 2019.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

Vignette

Vignette

31.10.2018 - Thought of the Day

The first time the Italian Economy fails to grow since end of 2014

The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP points to a stalling Italian economy in summer and to a decelerating trend.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

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