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FED

FED

25.06.2019 - Thought of the Day

The message from the Fed is clear: rate cuts are coming!

4 key takeaways from the Fed meeting: Powell has done a good job!; FOMC has downgraded the assessment of economic activity growth from “solid” to “moderate” and “uncertainties about this outlook have increased”; The Fed is concerned about inflation; The Fed suggests that the next move is a cut.

Valentine AINOUZ

Deputy Head of Developed Market Strategy Research

2019.05-expert talks FOMC

2019.05-expert talks FOMC

07.05.2019 - Expert Talk

On the Fed, inflation and growth

On the FOMC meeting: no news does not mean hawkish news. After its latest meeting, the FOMC hinted at no need for a change in the outlook for monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

Vignette_FOMC

Vignette_FOMC

27.08.2018 - Thought of the Day

The word “strong” was referenced 32 times in the FOMC’s August 2018 minutes

"GROWTH ASSESSMENT– “strong” is the word:the outlook for the economy is positive and widely supported by data and anecdotal evidence,thanks to expansionary fiscal policies, broadly easy financial conditions and strong household and business confidence. An upsurge in exports, possibly in anticipation of forthcoming trade actions, may have exceptionally boosted growth in Q2."

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

Vignette

Vignette

08.02.2018 - Thought of the Day

Markets revised up sharply their fed funds expectations in January

In the wake of the adoption of the fiscal reform on December 19, markets have revised up sharply their fed funds expectations.

Bastien DRUT

Senior Strategist at CPR AM

2017-03-how-will-the-feds-balance-sheet-return-to-normal

2017-03-how-will-the-feds-balance-sheet-return-to-normal

02.02.2018 - Investment Talks

Cautious on yields, selective on spreads amidst a more confident FED

The economic assessment, upgraded in some part, highlighted that all domestic engines of growth are working properly to propel strong demand.

Bastien DRUT, Charles MELCHREIT, Annalisa USARDI

2017.11.06-BOE raise rates

2017.11.06-BOE raise rates

06.11.2017 - Investment Talks

The Bank of England raises rates: Bearish for the pound

The latest data indicate that the market is only slightly short GBP and we think that this view is too optimistic.

Tristan PERRIER, Bastien DRUT, Francesco SANDRINI

Img slider 2017-10-03

Img slider 2017-10-03

03.10.2017 - Thematic Paper

Will the reshuffling of the FOMC change the monetary policy outlook in the United States?

Donald Trump should announce in the coming weeks his choice for the post of chair of the Board of Governors. Because of the recent resignations of Daniel Tarullo and Stanley Fischer, the President has the power to reshuffle greatly and for long the FOMC composition. However, the lack of fiscal room of maneuver does not argue for a radical change of the monetary policy and for a rapid rise of the fed funds.

Bastien DRUT

Senior Strategist at CPR AM

Img Investment talks - 2017-09-22

Img Investment talks - 2017-09-22

22.09.2017 - Investment Talks

Diversify risk in fixed income as Fed unwinds its balance sheet

" The FOMC projections reduced their estimate of the terminal rate to 2.75%. The lower terminal Fed Funds rate means that the Fed is modestly closer to the end of its tightening cycle."

Bastien DRUT, Charles MELCHREIT

Vignette

Vignette

12.07.2017 - Thought of the Day

Over the past year, the markets have persistently underestimated what the Fed would do

At the end of June 2016, the futures markets expected the fed funds to be at 0.41% one year later (end June 2017) but the effective fed funds on 30 June 2017 was 1.06%, ie 65 bps above the expected level

Bastien DRUT

Senior Strategist at CPR AM

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