/ Research Center

17.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Christine TODD, Sergio BERTONCINI, Noah FUNDERBURK, Marco PIRONDINI, Eric MIJOT, Annalisa USARDI, Paresh UPADHYAYA

12.11.2019 - Investment Talks

Renewed expansion of Fed balance sheet will not be QE but will affect markets

On 30 October the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year, while hinting at a pause over the next few months. The rate cut followed the Fed’s announcement on 11 October that it will address a liquidity shortage causing volatility in the overnight loan market by buying $60 billion per month in Treasury bills until Q2 2020 and support overnight repo operations through January 2020.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD

11.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Trump impeachment is likely, but impact on financial markets would be short-lived

The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD

04.10.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Central banks have confirmed the shift to a much more accommodative stance

In their September meetings, both the ECB and Fed confirmed their easing mode. The ECB delivered a full monetary policy package (pre-announced in previous months), combining conventional and unconventional tools, together with the introduction of new measures aimed at reducing the sideeffects of negative rates. The FOMC delivered its second rate cut and kept the easing bias while refraining from giving clues on forward guidance, on the back of the still supportive domestic economic picture and the mixed views emerging from the dots. For the first time, therefore, the Fed hinted at resuming the organic growth of its balance sheet: the objective will be to consistently calibrate reserves to the new level of rates, in order to keep optimal abundant liquidity levels, so as not to provide a further stimulus to the economy. In this piece, we focus on these very latest developments and on the monetary policy outlook.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Valentine AINOUZ

24.09.2019 - Investment Talks

The Fed cuts rate, but the market expects more

The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.

Christine TODD, Timothy ROWE, Jon DUENSING

FED and ECB - impactful and significant package

27.08.2019 - Expert Talk

FED and ECB, bridging from a “mid-cycle adjustment” to an “impactful and significant” package.

The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

25.07.2019 - Expert Talk

The Fed and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accommodative monetary policy support growth?

The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

25.06.2019 - Thought of the Day

The message from the Fed is clear: rate cuts are coming!

4 key takeaways from the Fed meeting: Powell has done a good job!; FOMC has downgraded the assessment of economic activity growth from “solid” to “moderate” and “uncertainties about this outlook have increased”; The Fed is concerned about inflation; The Fed suggests that the next move is a cut.

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

07.05.2019 - Expert Talk

On the Fed, inflation and growth

On the FOMC meeting: no news does not mean hawkish news. After its latest meeting, the FOMC hinted at no need for a change in the outlook for monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

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