/ Research Center

09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

05.03.2020 - Insights Paper

Fixed Income: Zero rates do not mean zero returns

As we enter the 2020s, a look back over the previous decade provides a key take-away for investors: a zero-rate environment does not lead to zero performance for bond investors. Last year was a clear example as bond markets delivered strong performances with almost – if not above – double-digit returns across the board. Looking back over the past five years, annualised returns across different bond markets were also positive. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate USD-Hedged index delivered 8.7% in 2019 and an average of 3.5% over the past five years.

Eric BRARD

Head of Fixed Income

15.01.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Europe at an economic policy crossroads

The new European leadership (at the head of the European Commission and the ECB), combined with historically low real interest rates, provides a unique opportunity to rethink priorities in order to meet the challenges at hand (economic, financial, environmental and security challenges). In economic terms, strengthening Europe and improving its competitiveness means tackling all these challenges simultaneously. At the level of economic policy, the link between monetary and fiscal policy must inevitably be rethought. But that's not enough. The expansionary policy mix must be accompanied by an improvement in the financial architecture. We identify two pillars on which the European authorities shold be able to act significantly in 2020-21: the Capital Market Union and budgetary rules. This is a prerequisite for dealing with the inevitable macrofinancial shocks that the future holds. Against this backdrop, the voices of Christine Lagarde and Ursula von Der Leyen (Presidents of the ECB and the Commission respectively) are eagerly awaited.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

08.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Time for a flight to cyclical value in European equity

When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Andreas WOSOL, Eric MIJOT, Alexandre DRABOWICZ

23.12.2019 - Amundi Conversation

2019.12.16 - UK Elections: A game changer?

The markets and investments impacts after the UK Elections by Sirs Simon Fraser and Amundi's experts.

Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Simon FRASER, Laurent TIGNARD

11.12.2019 - Investment Talks

UK election could pave the way for an orderly Brexit and a rebound in equities

The possibility of seeing a smoother, faster Brexit will depend on the outcome of the UK election on Thursday, 12 December.

Tristan PERRIER, Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN

08.11.2019 - Amundi Conversation

2019.11.08 - New European Leaders: what's to be expected?

Sébastien Maillard, Director of the Jacques Delors Institute, and Amundi's experts, shared their insights on the new European leaders taking office and their agenda, and addressed possible asset allocation impacts.

Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Sébastien MAILLARD, Didier BOROWSKI, Luc MOUZON

29.10.2019 - Discussion Paper

Buybacks – A multi-perspective review and thoughts on best practices for company buyback policies

US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.

Ibra WANE, Craig STERLING

26.09.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit: extension of the deadline is likely, but the final outcome remains uncertain

Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline). This week, the UK Supreme Court judged “unlawful” the advice to susped the legislature given by Boris Johnson to the Queen. These events strengthen our view that another extension of the Brexit deadline is the most likely scenario.

Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER

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