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23.07.2020 - Insights Paper

The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

The global outbreak of Covid-19 has brought the world and its economy to a standstill, highlighting the importance of sustainable and resilient infrastructure (healthcare, water, power, telecommunications). Countries with fragile infrastructure have less capacity to handle crises, so they will need to increase their infrastructure investments. This is especially crucial in the context of health security and rapid urbanisation.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

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24.06.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

HKD: sailing through the turbulence

Caught in the struggle between Beijing and Washington, can Hong Kong pull through the hardship without special trade status? Is Trump’s announcement symbolic or destructive for the territory? Will the Hong Kong dollar peg fall apart? We review these questions one by one in this analysis.

Joevin TEO, Claire HUANG

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21.02.2020 - Expert Talk

Exports' dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries

The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism).

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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30.01.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on fundamentals: virus volatility provides entry points for EM equities

Overview: The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October. We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

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12.09.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Trade war escalation and impact on world trade and economic growth

Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China.

Alessia BERARDI

Head of Emerging Markets Macro & Strategy Research

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09.08.2019 - Investment Talks

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures inform of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

Didier BOROWSKI, Angelo CORBETTA, Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Francesco SANDRINI

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G-20

03.07.2019 - Investment Talks

G20: market relief, eyes now on Central Bank's execution

The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on $200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation, which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

Vincent MORTIER, Didier BOROWSKI, Monica DEFEND

Trade war

Trade war

14.05.2019 - Investment Talks

US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war

In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Qinwei WANG

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