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30.01.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on fundamentals: virus volatility provides entry points for EM equities

Overview: The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October. We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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Slider

06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

09 - image vignette - Cross Asset

09 - image slider - Cross Asset

12.09.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Trade war escalation and impact on world trade and economic growth

Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China.

Alessia BERARDI

Deputy Head of Macroeconomic Research

US China-800x400

US China-800x400

09.08.2019 - Investment Talks

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures inform of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

Didier BOROWSKI, Angelo CORBETTA, Abbas AMELI-RENANI, Francesco SANDRINI

G-20

G-20

03.07.2019 - Investment Talks

G20: market relief, eyes now on Central Bank's execution

The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on $200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation, which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

Vincent MORTIER, Didier BOROWSKI, Monica DEFEND

Trade war

Trade war

14.05.2019 - Investment Talks

US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war

In our opinion, we should dismiss the idea that talks could breakdown, albeit uncertainties remain. On one side, in order to reach an agreement China wants the U.S. to remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Qinwei WANG

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07.02.2019 - Investment Talks

China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

Chinese New Year brings some hopes on the trade front, as some details are emerging on progress with the negotiations.

Vincent MORTIER, Angelo CORBETTA, Debora DELBÓ, Qinwei WANG

2018-12-G20

2018-12-G20

03.12.2018 - Investment Talks

From G20: short-term relief, but it is not the final word on trade disputes

"For China, such a deal is already good news, as what the country needs now is probably more time to face the current economic slowdown and to restore weak investor sentiment"

Didier BOROWSKI, Vincent MORTIER, Qinwei WANG

Global Macro - Outlook 2020

Global Macro - Outlook 2020

27.11.2018 - Thematic Paper

Global Macro - Outlook to 2020

Central scenario (70% probability): “multi-speed” slowdown that risks becoming a synchronised slowdown, due to the multiplication of risks.

Qinwei WANG, Didier BOROWSKI, Annalisa USARDI, Tristan PERRIER, Gregorio VANIN, Akio YOSHINO, Alessia BERARDI, Karine HERVE, Sosi VARTANESYAN

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