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03.03.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

China and EM: growth and policy Q&A

The resurgence of Covid-19 cases in three northern Chinese cities prompted the government to escalate pandemic containment measures aggressively, just ahead of the Lunar New Year (LNY), leading to a plummet in travel during the holiday season.

Alessia BERARDI, Claire HUANG

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16.11.2020 - Discussion Paper

Europe, US and China tomorrow: Will it be possible to avoid geopolitical and economic traps?

There are many pitfalls looming. Some concern China, the United States and Europe, while others are more targeted, notably on China or on the relationship between China and the United States. Some traps concern geopolitics (the Thucydides trap, the Kindleberger trap, the Herodotus trap, the Tacitus trap, the Chamberlain - Daladier trap and the cold war trap), while others deal with purely economic issues (the middle-income trap, the inflation trap, the stagflation trap and the debt trap).

Philippe ITHURBIDE

Senior Economic Advisor

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

28.10.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - November 2020

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing. The ability of the virus cycle, which is the most critical of the three cycles, to affect the other two is now lower vs the beginning of the year.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

30.09.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - October 2020

Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month. The relative calm in credit and US Treasuries reassures that the readjustment is mainly due to investor repositioning, and is not driven by financial market stress.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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23.07.2020 - Insights Paper

The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

The global outbreak of Covid-19 has brought the world and its economy to a standstill, highlighting the importance of sustainable and resilient infrastructure (healthcare, water, power, telecommunications). Countries with fragile infrastructure have less capacity to handle crises, so they will need to increase their infrastructure investments. This is especially crucial in the context of health security and rapid urbanisation.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of Emerging Markets

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24.06.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

HKD: sailing through the turbulence

Caught in the struggle between Beijing and Washington, can Hong Kong pull through the hardship without special trade status? Is Trump’s announcement symbolic or destructive for the territory? Will the Hong Kong dollar peg fall apart? We review these questions one by one in this analysis.

Joevin TEO, Claire HUANG

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21.02.2020 - Expert Talk

Exports' dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries

The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism).

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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30.01.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on fundamentals: virus volatility provides entry points for EM equities

Overview: The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October. We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

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