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27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic

At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Markets scenarios & risks - June 2020

Monthly update. We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.

Amundi Research

Vignette

Vignette

27.05.2020 - Podcast

Blue Convictions - The big financial regimes picture is confirmed

This new episode of Blue Convictions confirm the big picture to come: a contraction phase in 2020, a recovery phase in 2021 and a late cycle or asset reflation, depending on central banks policies, in 2022.

Cross Asset

Cross Asset

27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

25.05.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - June 2020

The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should stay alert as current market levels are still pricing in a ‘too rosy too soon’ endgame. The race between the three cycles will continue.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

Slider Markets scenarios & risk

30.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Markets scenarios & risks - May 2020

Monthly update. We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.

Amundi Research

Cross Asset

Cross Asset

30.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

28.04.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - May 2020

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course. The most important will be the duel between liquidity and solvency in which the focal point that could shift power from one side to the other is the pandemic’s evolution. How long it will last is the key variable that will determine the shape of the recovery, which now appears likely to be U-shaped, with a long bottom phase and the slow recovery.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Cross Asset

Cross Asset

02.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy - Find the latest edition of our Research team's monthly publication

Amundi Research

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