/ Research Center

08.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Biden and Democrats take control despite Trump protesters

Georgia runoffs results: The 2020 US general elections ended on 6 January 2021 with a Democratic sweep of two critical Georgia Senate seats, giving Democrats a slim majority and control of government until at least the next round of Congressional elections in two years. The stunning developments on Capitol Hill will not change the significance of the Georgia election, which will have far-reaching implications for Biden’s policy agenda and financial markets.

Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

18.12.2020 - Investment Talks

Georgia Senate runoffs to determine future of Biden presidency

While the title sounds dramatic, what happens in Georgia on 5 January is critical to US policy over the next four years. Following the 3 November elections, it was looking like a divided government, with Joe Biden elected President and the Republicans holding the US Senate. But as the trickle in counting occurred in Georgia, it became evident that there will be runoff elections on 5 January for both Georgia Senate seats, after no candidate received the 50% majority mark required to avoid a runoff. This has paved the way for potential Democratic control of the Senate by the barest of majorities.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

11.12.2020 - Investment Talks

The US election and Covid-19 vaccines: implications for the economy and markets

The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy, that is, higher taxes.

Kenneth J. TAUBES

CIO of US Investment Management

17.11.2020 - Podcast

Blue Conversation - The US elections #3: Results - analysis & investment impacts

As the election of Joe Biden unfolds in legal challenges, Greg Valliere, Barron’s columnist, veteran non-partisan commentator on Washington developments, has provided his insights and analysis on the current outcome.

10.11.2020 - Investment Talks

2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided

Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

04.11.2020 - Investment Talks

US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.

Didier BOROWSKI, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Monica DEFEND

29.10.2020 - Podcast

Blue Conversation - The US elections #2: expectations and market scenarios on the eve of the US presidential elections

Few days left before the most divisive US presidential elections. If the polls in the US are accurate, Joe Biden will be elected the next president of the US. But as experienced in the last election, the polls could be wrong, and maybe Trump will win again. As the election grows closer, Covid-19 cases are rising in many parts of the world and is reemerging as a threat to the global economy. Investors are searching for answers on what the election will mean for the markets going forward.

29.10.2020 - Podcast

Blue Convictions - Global Investment Views: the path towards a sustained growth

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.

28.10.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - November 2020

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing. The ability of the virus cycle, which is the most critical of the three cycles, to affect the other two is now lower vs the beginning of the year.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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