/ Research Center

10.03.2020 - Investment Talks

The Democratic race to nomination and implications for markets

The race to Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates now, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with Biden being the new frontrunner based on delegate count, market expectations and national polls.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Paresh UPADHYAYA

09.03.2020 - Expert Talk

Super Tuesday outcome

The outcome of Super Tuesday took most people by surprise and maybe even Joe Biden himself… A third-time campaigner to become the Democratic Party’s candidate (after 1988 and 2008) for the November 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden had a tough start.

Pierre BLANCHET

Head of Investment Intelligence

09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

06.03.2020 - Investment Talks

US election - Super Tuesday: seeking the democratic candidate

What are the different options expected and what potential impacts on the market can be foreseen? Amundi leads you on a clearer path with a dedicated infographic analysis.

Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit

04.03.2020 - Investment Talks

Coronavirus emergency: Fed cuts rates, but markets expect more

In the first intra-meeting ease since the 2008 crisis, the Fed delivered a 50 basis-point rate cut. Market volatility and liquidity concerns have likely been the trigger for the emergency cut. The market reaction has been a sell-off in equities, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched new lows, as the Fed move is perceived as not being enough to offset recent deterioration in financial conditions due to the market reaction to the coronavirus outbreak. Markets still expect more.

Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Monica DEFEND

02.03.2020 - Investment Talks

Super Tuesday: why it is important and what to expect for US assets

On 3 March, 14 US states will hold primaries for the Democratic presidential nomination. Following Senator Bernie Sander’s good start and Senator Joe Biden’s landslide win on 29 February, the field is now narrowed to a two-person race.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Didier BOROWSKI

17.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Christine TODD, Sergio BERTONCINI, Noah FUNDERBURK, Marco PIRONDINI, Eric MIJOT, Annalisa USARDI, Paresh UPADHYAYA

14.01.2020 - Thematic Paper

U.S. inflation… what’s up?

From the CPI data, in particular the HCPI, one would get the sense that inflation has decelerated and stabilised somewhat.

Annalisa USARDI

CFA, Senior Economist

17.12.2019 - Investment Talks

2020 outlook for the US 10-year Treasury bond

In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010. In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors that drove volatility in 2019. We don’t expect the benchmark bond to exhibit a particular bias towards going higher or lower, assuming certain outlier scenarios are avoided. The current cyclical slowdown phase calls for caution, but investors may also want to prepare for a U-turn if and when earnings and economic growth reaccelerates. A macro environment marked bystabilising growth and a patient but supportive Federal Reserve should be positive for risk assets in general.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD, Marco PIRONDINI

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