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29.07.2020 - Investment Talks

Challenges and opportunities in US Commercial Real Estate

Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors. Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, and positive on the industrial sector.

Andrew SCHIAPPA, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

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27.07.2020 - Insights Paper

The Case for US Equities in Global Portfolios

As you construct and monitor client portfolios, we hope you find our Blue Paper informative, insightful and rather complementary to your ongoing due diligence and asset allocation endeavors – both for the balance of 2020 and in the long-run. Recognizing the presence of potential constraints you might encounter through the lens of existing investment guidelines, the composition of your benchmarks, regional exposures, or investment styles, we believe the findings of our research suggest the consideration of US equities for inclusion in either regionally or globally-focused portfolios, to help raise the odds of longer-term risk-adjusted outperformance in client portfolios. The latter is informed by our analysis and what we deem secular—rather than merely cyclical— tailwinds for US equity markets.

Craig STERLING, Marco PIRONDINI

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15.07.2020 - Investment Talks

Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.

Kevin CHOY, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

24.06.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Thematics Views - July 2020

Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existing imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.

Pierre BLANCHET, Didier BOROWSKI, Tristan PERRIER, Valentine AINOUZ, Mickael BELLAÏCHE, Noah FUNDERBURK

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23.06.2020 - Investment Talks

Biden’s election momentum and financial markets

Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election. The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD, Craig STERLING

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08.04.2020 - Podcast

Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#5 - The USA: opportunities in a market expecting a deep recession

The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm.

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10.03.2020 - Investment Talks

The Democratic race to nomination and implications for markets

The race to Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates now, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with Biden being the new frontrunner based on delegate count, market expectations and national polls.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Paresh UPADHYAYA

Vignette Super Tuesday

Vignette Super Tuesday

09.03.2020 - Expert Talk

Super Tuesday outcome

The outcome of Super Tuesday took most people by surprise and maybe even Joe Biden himself… A third-time campaigner to become the Democratic Party’s candidate (after 1988 and 2008) for the November 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden had a tough start.

Pierre BLANCHET

Head of Investment Intelligence

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09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

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